BTC/USDT detailed daily timeframe analysis (BTC/USDT 1D) - 4th July 2025

BTC/USDT detailed daily timeframe analysis (BTC/USDT 1D) - 4th July 2025

  • Jul 04, 2025
  • Shahnawaz Alam by Shahnawaz Alam
  • Crypto

πŸ“Š Key Technical Overview:

  • Current Price: $109,656 (as of this daily candle)
  • Short-Term Trend: Bullish breakout attempt from a descending triangle or wedge pattern.
  • Volume Profile (POC): High interest/support zone near $84,656.

πŸ”‘ Main Observations:

  1. Chart Patterns:
    • Multiple W-shaped double bottom patterns (highlighted in red) are visible, especially the strong bounce in March–April.
    • Recent breakout from a descending trendline with a sharp bullish move.
    • Bullish flag or pennant formation that’s potentially resolving upward.
  2. Support & Resistance:
    • Immediate Resistance: ~$110,000 – $112,500 zone (previous highs).
    • Immediate Support: ~$106,893 (recent breakout area).
    • Next key supports:
      • $104,757 (strong candle base and minor demand zone).
      • $100,948 (psychological and structural support).
      • $95,132 (marked key support + 200 MA convergence).
  3. Volume Profile Insights:
    • Strong historical volume concentration (blue bars) between $95,000–$100,000.
    • Thin liquidity above $110,000β€”this could lead to sharp moves in either direction.
    • The major POC at $84,656 remains the ultimate strong base (but far below current price).
  4. Moving Averages:
    • Price is above:
      • 50-day MA
      • 100-day MA
      • 200-day MA (around $95K).
    • The bullish alignment of moving averages confirms a strong medium-term trend.
  5. TD Sequential & Elliott Waves:
    • The chart shows advanced TD counts (1–9), which can indicate trend exhaustion or continuation depending on price reaction.
    • The recent green counts suggest a fresh bullish leg is underway after correction.
  6. Fibonacci Retracement:
    • There is a small visible Fib retracement suggesting price has cleared the 61.8% level of the previous swing down, indicating strength.

Β 

πŸ“ˆ Potential Scenarios:

ScenarioTarget LevelsTriggers/Notes
Bullish Breakout (Primary Bias)$112,500 β†’ $115,000+Close above $110K with volume β†’ new highs possible
Range-bound Consolidation$106,893 β†’ $110,000Possible short-term chop as price builds energy
Bearish Pullback$104,757 β†’ $100,948Break below $106K triggers a retest of lower supports
Deep Correction$95,132 β†’ $84,656Only if macro sentiment turns negative

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πŸ‘‰ My Take:

  • The chart looks bullish but approaching critical resistance.
  • Immediate watch zone: $110K+ breakout or $106K retest.
  • Keep an eye on volume spikesβ€”low volume could mean false breakouts.
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