(BTC/USDT detailed daily timeframe analysis (BTC/USDT 1D) - 4th July 2025

(BTC/USDT detailed daily timeframe analysis (BTC/USDT 1D) - 4th July 2025

  • ΰ€œΰ₯ΰ€². 04, 2025
  • Shahnawaz Alam by Shahnawaz Alam
  • Crypto

πŸ“Š Key Technical Overview:

  • Current Price: $109,656 (as of this daily candle)

  • Short-Term Trend: Bullish breakout attempt from a descending triangle or wedge pattern.

  • Volume Profile (POC): High interest/support zone near $84,656.

πŸ”‘ Main Observations:

  1. Chart Patterns:

    • Multiple W-shaped double bottom patterns (highlighted in red) are visible, especially the strong bounce in March–April.

    • Recent breakout from a descending trendline with a sharp bullish move.

    • Bullish flag or pennant formation that’s potentially resolving upward.

  2. Support & Resistance:

    • Immediate Resistance: ~$110,000 – $112,500 zone (previous highs).

    • Immediate Support: ~$106,893 (recent breakout area).

    • Next key supports:

      • $104,757 (strong candle base and minor demand zone).

      • $100,948 (psychological and structural support).

      • $95,132 (marked key support + 200 MA convergence).

  3. Volume Profile Insights:

    • Strong historical volume concentration (blue bars) between $95,000–$100,000.

    • Thin liquidity above $110,000β€”this could lead to sharp moves in either direction.

    • The major POC at $84,656 remains the ultimate strong base (but far below current price).

  4. Moving Averages:

    • Price is above:

      • 50-day MA

      • 100-day MA

      • 200-day MA (around $95K).

    • The bullish alignment of moving averages confirms a strong medium-term trend.

  5. TD Sequential & Elliott Waves:

    • The chart shows advanced TD counts (1–9), which can indicate trend exhaustion or continuation depending on price reaction.

    • The recent green counts suggest a fresh bullish leg is underway after correction.

  6. Fibonacci Retracement:

    • There is a small visible Fib retracement suggesting price has cleared the 61.8% level of the previous swing down, indicating strength.

Β 

πŸ“ˆ Potential Scenarios:

ScenarioTarget LevelsTriggers/Notes
Bullish Breakout (Primary Bias)$112,500 β†’ $115,000+Close above $110K with volume β†’ new highs possible
Range-bound Consolidation$106,893 β†’ $110,000Possible short-term chop as price builds energy
Bearish Pullback$104,757 β†’ $100,948Break below $106K triggers a retest of lower supports
Deep Correction$95,132 β†’ $84,656Only if macro sentiment turns negative

Β 

πŸ‘‰ My Take:

  • The chart looks bullish but approaching critical resistance.

  • Immediate watch zone: $110K+ breakout or $106K retest.

  • Keep an eye on volume spikesβ€”low volume could mean false breakouts.

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