Solana (SOL/USD) Weekly Chart Analysis - Week 27, 2025

Solana (SOL/USD) Weekly Chart Analysis - Week 27, 2025

  • Jul 04, 2025
  • Shahnawaz Alam by Shahnawaz Alam
  • Crypto

βœ… Current Price: $151.39

  • Market is in a corrective phase after reaching recent highs near $200+.

πŸ”‘ Key Technical Insights:

1. Resistance Levels:

  • $157–$180: Immediate resistance zone with prior rejection (orange and red horizontal markers).
  • Major resistance near $240–$300 (highlighted with red target box on your chart).

2. Support Levels:

  • $140.58: First key support (near short-term moving averages).
  • $101.76: Strong technical and psychological support (around 200-week MA).
  • Volume Profile shows heavy past activity around $15–$25 (unlikely to revisit unless extreme crash).

3. Volume Profile (VPVR):

  • Significant volume accumulation between $10 – $30, now acting as long-term support.
  • Thin volume in the $200–$300 zone suggests that a breakout above $180 could lead to fast price expansion.

4. Chart Patterns & Structures:

  • Symmetrical triangle breakout earlier this year led to the sharp rise towards $200.
  • Current price action shows:
    • A probable Wave 2 or Wave 4 correction (as per Elliott Wave theory).
    • Consolidation within higher time frame structure.

5. TD Sequential:

  • Several green and red sequences visible; the current setup suggests a potential bullish reset after recent sell-off.

6. Moving Averages:

  • Price is still above the 100-week MA (~$140) and far above the 200-week MA (~$101).
  • A healthy correction phase is unfolding, but the long-term trend remains upward.

πŸ“ˆ Possible Scenarios:

ScenarioTargetTriggers
Bullish Reversal:$180 β†’ $200 β†’ $240Break and close above $157–$160 with volume
Sideways Accumulation:$140 β†’ $157 rangeChoppy movement as market consolidates
Deeper Correction:$101 β†’ $120Break below $140.5 could invite bears

πŸ“Œ Quick Takeaways:

βœ… Solana is in a healthy mid-cycle correction.
βœ… Key bounce zones are $140 and $101.
βœ… Break above $160 could signal continuation towards $200+.

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🎯 Key Levels:

TypePrice Zone
Entry Zone$145 – $152
Target 1$157
Target 2$180
Target 3$200
Stop Loss$138 (or conservative: $130)

πŸ“Œ Trade Idea:

  • Entry: Buy between $145–$152 as long as price stays above $140.50.
  • Take Profits: Partial at $157, more at $180, stretch goal $200+.
  • Stop Loss: Close below $138 on daily or weekly candle.

βœ… Risk/Reward: At least 2.5:1 targeting $180, higher if reaching $200+.

πŸ‘‰ Optional Add-On:

  • If price dips to $130–$138, consider it a secondary entry for better positioning.

🏦 Long-Term Investment Thesis for Solana (2025–2026)

πŸš€ Bullish Case:

  1. Ecosystem Growth: Rapid expansion in NFTs (Solana NFTs gaining popularity), DeFi protocols, and gaming (GameFi).
  2. Speed & Cost: SOL remains one of the fastest and cheapest Layer 1 blockchainsβ€”mass adoption edge.
  3. Institutional Interest: Increasing integration in tokenized assets and payment systems.

πŸ’‘ Price Projections (12–18 Months):

TargetReason
Base Target$180–$200 (prior highs)
Bullish Target$240–$300 (next resistance cluster)
Extreme Bull$400+ (ATH breakout potential)

πŸ›‘ Risk Factors to Watch:

  • SEC/Regulatory pressures on Layer 1 blockchains.
  • Solana network outages (less frequent now but still a concern).
  • Macro market downturn (equities, global liquidity tightening).

βœ… Suggested Long-Term Action:

  • Accumulate gradually above $100 with focus on holding through Q4 2025–Q1 2026.
  • Reassess at $180–$200 levels.

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πŸ“Œ 2. Comparison: Solana vs Other Layer 1s (2025 Outlook)

ChainStrengthsWeaknessesPrice Potential (2025)
Solana (SOL)Fast, cheap, DeFi & NFTs leader, huge communityHistory of outages, regulatory risks$180 β†’ $300+
Ethereum (ETH)Most secure, institutional adoption, L2s scalingHigh fees, slower upgrades$3,200 β†’ $4,500
Avalanche (AVAX)Fast finality, subnets, growing DeFiLower adoption vs Solana & ETH$55 β†’ $100+
Near Protocol (NEAR)High TPS, AI-integrated future, low costLess brand recognition, slower ecosystem growth$7 β†’ $15+
Cardano (ADA)Strong academic approach, big communitySlow dev cycle, low DeFi usage$0.45 β†’ $1.5+

πŸ‘‰ Solana stands out for speed + adoption but Ethereum remains the safest blue-chip.

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