β
Current Status:
- Price: $109,514
- Weekly Candle: Still inside the high resistance zone with upward momentum but signs of hesitation.
π Key Technical Highlights:
1. Resistance Zones:
- Primary Resistance: $109,000 β $115,000 (current test zone)
- This area has historical rejection (previous top) and is showing some wick rejections.
2. Support Levels:
- First Key Support: $98,891 (red dotted line) β must hold to avoid deeper pullback.
- Next:
- $87,461
- $72,773 β structural and Fib zone.
- $55,751 β near 200-week MA (very strong support historically).
3. POC (Point of Control):
- $21,507.5 β This is the high-volume traded price from the 2022β2023 accumulation zone.
- Only relevant in extreme bear cases.
4. TD Sequential & Wave Count:
- The TD green 9s suggest potential exhaustion.
- Youβre also showing Elliott-type wave structuresβprice may be finishing an impulsive 5-wave sequence (risk of correction next).
5. Volume Profile:
- Thin volume zones above $110K could lead to quick upside if resistance breaks.
- High volume clusters are visible between $20Kβ$40K and $60Kβ$80Kβpotential magnets if macro shifts.
6. Channel & Trendlines:
- Price remains within an upward sloping megaphone/wedge.
- Diagonal supports are intact but showing vulnerability on sharper corrections.
π Three Probable Scenarios:
Scenario | Levels | Likelihood (Est.) |
---|
Bullish Continuation: | $115K β $125K (ATH challenge) | 40% |
Healthy Correction (Base Building): | $98K β $87K β $72K | 45% |
Severe Correction (Macro risk/off): | $55K β $21K (unlikely unless systemic) | 15% |
π Additional Insights:
- The green arrow down on your chart suggests awareness of a potential large-scale ABC correction after this run-up.
- The long-term moving averages are still supportive but price is getting over-extended on weekly charts.
- Macro events (Fed, ETF flows, global risk appetite) will likely influence which path BTC follows next.
π Key Levels to Watch This Month:
- Hold Above: $98K to maintain bullish structure.
- Break Above: $115K to target new highs.
- Break Below: $87K opens door for retest of $72K.